Rongbai Technology (688005): Leading high nickel ternary earnings to benefit electric trend
Leading company in high-nickel ternary materials, the first to achieve 811 mass production: The company is one of the first domestic manufacturers of 夜来香体验网monocrystalline NCM523 and monocrystalline NCM 622 ternary oriented materials. 811 elementary cells used at primary temperature have a high number of nickel cycles at room temperature.
New products with outstanding continuous iteration and superior performance, the company achieved revenue of 30 in 18 years.
USD 4.1 billion, an increase of 62% a year; net profit attributable to mothers2.
1.3 billion, an increase of 584% a year.
The domestic ternary material market size will be nearly 100 billion US dollars by 2025: new energy vehicles will gradually develop, the policy side (point system, multinational fuel car ban), the supply side (automotive companies will accelerate their electrification, and new products will continue to be introduced), and the demand side(Awareness / acceptance improvement) Jointly assist new energy vehicles to replace fuel vehicles.
We estimate that global new energy passenger car sales will reach 17.55 million units in 2025, and 7-year compound generators36.
2%; the corresponding ternary long-term material market size exceeds 2400 trillion, with an average annual compound growth rate of 39.
The company has an international management team: the chairman of the company, Bai Shanhou, served as the general manager of Dangsheng Technology, a leading domestic short-term material company. There are many Korean leaders in the research institute who have worked in Samsung SDI, L & F.
The rich industry experience of executives will help the company accurately grasp the industry needs and seize the first-mover advantage in product development.
The company’s high nickel ternary production capacity leads: The company’s 2019 ternary exceptional material production capacity is expected to expand to 4.
5 is the lowest, of which high nickel accounts for 87%; it is expected to expand to 8, 10 indicators by the end of 2020 and 2021.
The company’s fund-raising project 2025 Power Lithium Battery Materials Comprehensive Base (Phase 1) will build a precursor production line with an annual output of 6 inputs and ternary alternative materials, which will help the company solve the problem of insufficient precursor production capacity, further optimize product production processes, and improve intelligent manufacturing andThe informatization level has consolidated the company’s superior position in the high nickel ternary raw material industry.
Profit forecast and estimation: We expect the company’s EPS for 2019-2021 to be 1.
19 yuan (full dilution based on the shares issued by the IPO).
Combining the absolute estimation method and the relative estimation method, we believe that the reasonable estimation interval of the company’s secondary market is 26.
Take the estimated center 29.
91 yuan, corresponding to 19/20 PE estimates are 29x and 21x respectively.
Risk warning: New energy vehicle sales are lower than expected, industry competition is intensifying, raw material prices are changing, technology routes are changing, issuance failures, cash flow risks, etc.