Livzon Group (000513): A 40% reduction in the price of ilaprazole injection is a great deal.

Livzon Group (000513): A 40% reduction in the price of ilaprazole injection is a great deal.

Event: Lizhu’s collective injection of ilaprazole sodium was successfully negotiated for medical insurance.

On November 28, 2019, the Medical Insurance Bureau issued the “Notice on Substituting Class B Scope of Drugs Negotiated in 2019” (Medical Insurance[2019]No. 65).

The company’s ilaprazole sodium for injection was replaced by the “Medicine Exchange Drug Part” in the “Medical Insurance Directory”, and at the same time, it was related to the replacement of the “Medical Insurance Catalog” by ilaprazole sodium for injectionThe matter signed the “2019 National Medical Insurance Drug Catalog Negotiation Access and Payment Standard Agreement”.

  Iraprazole injections have been added to Medicare for a 40% price reduction, which is of great significance and is the basis for rapid volume residuals in the next few years.

After the negotiation of ilaprazole injection, the medical insurance payment standard was 156 yuan (10mg / piece), and the previous bid price was 258 yuan, a 40% decrease.

After this release enters the medical insurance, the future volume can be expected: Negotiating and replacing the catalogue will greatly accelerate market access: Aipin is a new species just approved in 2018, and it is still in the market introduction period.

After entering the directory, it is expected to speed up hospital access and quickly cover more hospitals.

  The price reduction range reflects the degree of recognition in the vertical direction: the current price reduction is 40%, which is lower than the average reduction (60.

9%), reflecting the full recognition of the medical insurance bureau’s innovativeness and pharmacoeconomic advantages.

  The potential for future varieties to be traded in exchange for price has been exceeded, and breakthrough sales are expected to exceed 2 billion: Aipu injections will reach 5684 from January to September 2019.

100,000 yuan, the sales base of the variety is not large, but in the case of no medical insurance in the second year, this actually reflects Lizhu’s competitiveness in the digestive tract.

At present, the acupuncture needle progresses to 0 for PPI injections.

48%, according to the proportion of ilaprazole enteric-coated tablets (17%), after the injection enters the medical insurance, next year, the price will be exchanged for the amount of space.Sales of injections + enteric-coated tablets are expected to exceed 3 billion ahead of schedule.

  Comb the company’s investment logic.

The performance growth is highly certain. It has both chemical agents and innovative biological genes. In the short term, it looks at preparations and raw materials, and in the long term, it looks at the transformation of innovative biopharmaceuticals.

The company is a leader in the segmentation of high-quality biopharmaceuticals. The innovation pipeline is advancing steadily. There are segments that are consistently stable and consistently better than expected, with steady and sustained growth.

  Earnings forecasts and investment advice.

Based on the volume of ilaprazole after entering medical insurance, we raised the profit forecast for the year after next year. It is estimated that the net profit attributable to mothers will be 12 in 2019-2021.

4.1 billion, 14.

9.3 billion, 18.

3.0 billion yuan, with growth rates of 14.

7%, 20.

3%, 20.

8%, corresponding PE is 23x, 19x, 16x.

(The actual internal growth after the replacement incentive amortization is higher, and the replacement is predicted after deducting cash).

We believe that the company’s performance growth rate is fast and deterministic, with expected earnings. Innovative drugs and high-end generic drugs have begun to drive growth in an all-round way. The long-term layout of biomedicine + microspheres is in line with the industry direction.

We are optimistic about the company’s long-term development and maintain a “Buy” rating.

  Risk reminder: The sales volume of Shenqi Fuzheng is reduced, and the risk of monoclonal antibody 合肥夜网 research and development.